Wisdom Hatch founder Akshat Shrivastava on Wednesday argued that India is unlikely to break out of the middle-income bracket anytime soon, citing a lack of domestic innovation and growing economic pressures on the middle class. In a sharply worded post, he compared India’s trajectory to several South American countries “stuck in this loop,” saying, “We are no different.”
“India will at best be a middle-income country. And, will remain so for a foreseeable future,” Shrivastava wrote, adding, “You can bash me all you like. It won’t change facts.”
He criticised the country’s dependence on global technological trends rather than creating homegrown breakthroughs. “We benefit from tech-mega-trend cycles. Some of the most impactful recent innovations were spearhead by the US & China: right from Chips, Computers, Telecom, Web 1.0, 2.0, 3.0,” he said. “Our top businesses are simply brokers who bring these innovations to India. And, make money in the process. They invent nothing.”
Shrivastava pointed out that India’s advantage of low-cost labour is now being challenged by countries like Vietnam, while the software-driven growth of the 1990s and 2000s is no longer producing upward mobility. “The last tech-mega-trend was software. It helped us create the current ‘middle class’. With 0 innovation in the last 15 years: this middle class is breaking down. And, as a result—rather than getting lifted up—they are falling down,” he said. “You would often meet English speaking, College Graduates working as delivery boys now. That’s a sign.”
However, he noted that not all hope is lost. “Remittance is our #1 source of foreign income (125Bn$ in 2025); this was ahead of even FDI (which was 55Bn$),” Shrivastava said. He praised the perseverance of India’s youth: “India hardens the middle class. Kids (at least the top 0.1%) go through mountains to build a good career: right from studying 12 hr/day for competitive exams to working 16 hr/day jobs. They ace everything that is thrown at them.”
According to Shrivastava, the most reliable path to wealth for India at present is talent export. “Exporting good people abroad is our #1 strategy of generating wealth right now. And, will remain so for a foreseeable future.”
The Economic Survey 2024–25 has projected that India needs to grow at 8% annually and significantly raise its investment rate to achieve its Viksit Bharat 2047 goal. The NITI Aayog has similarly stressed that without sustained 7–10% growth over the next two to three decades, India risks falling into the middle-income trap.